Good afternoon everyone, it’s Chris Bengel with you on back-to-back days. I’ll be covering for my colleague Tom Fornelli on Tuesday and Wednesday as we head into the college football season.
Speaking of which, we actually have significant college football this weekend! We finally made it and we won’t have to know what it’s like to not play football at the weekend for the next six months or so. With the NFL not far behind, the weekends are about to get even more glorious.
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Let’s get into the diamond picks for tonight.
All Eastern times, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 Hot ticket
White Sox at Orioles, 7:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
- Key trend: Orioles are 20-7 in their last 27 home games
- Pick: Orioles (+100)
It’s almost September and the sports books are still consistently listing the Orioles as underdogs. That’s good, we’ll take the raised price to the bank.
The Orioles came off a 5-3 win over the White Sox in Tuesday’s game, and I don’t expect anything to change in this spot. White Sox starter Lucas Giolito has been terrible all season as he has posted a 5.34 ERA. Giolito has flashed the stuff before as one of the most dominant pitchers the sport has to offer, but he hasn’t played like that in a long time. He is coming off possibly his worst start of the season after being hit for seven earned runs in just three innings in a 21-5 loss at the hands of the Astros.
In fact, Giolito has given up at least four runs in four of his last eight starts. He has also given up at least six runs in two of those outings. Meanwhile, the Orioles have been victorious in three of four meetings against the White Sox in 2022. Over his last nine starts, Orioles starter Spencer Watkins has surrendered just one run or less in six of those outings. Watkins also is a rookie in limiting the Cubs to just one run on five hits over 5 2/3 innings in his most recent start. Get the Orioles with plus money and feel good about it.
💰 Elections
PLEASURE
âš¾ MLB
Brewers at Dodgers, 9 p.m. | TV: MLB Network
Pick: Over 8.5 runs (-115): — The Dodgers possess one of the most dangerous lineups in the league. Couple that with Adrian Houser returning from injury for the Brewers, and this looks like a great place to attack the bottom.
Over his last five starts before getting hurt, Houser allowed at least four runs in three of those outings, including five on two occasions. In his last start against the lowly Pirates on June 30, the veteran right-hander surrendered three earned runs on five hits in just 2 1/3 innings. I can’t imagine Houser going too deep in this game considering it’s his first start back from a forearm strain.
Los Angeles, on the other hand, has scored 10 runs in two of its last three games, including tagging Brewers ace Corbin Burnes for seven runs on six hits in just 3 2/3 innings Tuesday. It’s no surprise that the Dodgers have been so deadly on offense, as they rank in the top five in nearly every offensive category.
Key trend: Over is 5-2-1 in Dodgers last eight home games against a team with a winning record
Blue Jays at Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
Latest Chances:
Above 9.5
Pick: Over 9.5 runs (-105) — When both starting pitchers have an ERA over five, you get hammered. That’s the case with Wednesday’s AL East matchup between the Blue Jays and Red Sox.
Much like Giolito, Blue Jays starter Jose Berrios has been absolutely brutal this season. In three starts this month, he has posted an 8.79 ERA and allowed a combined 13 runs in two of those outings.
While it’s a small sample size, Red Sox prospect Brayan Bello hasn’t exactly set the organization an optimistic tone. In five starts, Bello has posted an 0-3 record to go along with an 8.47 ERA. Bello has given up at least four runs in three of those five starts while never lasting more than 4 1/3 innings. In addition, the junior right-hander has recorded at least three walks in three of those starts.
The Blue Jays and Red Sox both rank in the top 10 in the majors in batting average, runs and total bases, and those two teams are coming off a game in which they scored 12 total runs.
Key trend: Over is 5-0 in Blue Jays last five road games with overall set at 9.0-10.5